By Tonny Tumukunde
As Uganda reflects on another hard-fought election cycle, one question dominates political debate both at home and abroad: how has President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, after nearly four decades in power, continued to win the confidence of a significant number of Ugandans? Why, despite generational change, economic pressures, and a vociferous opposition, do many citizens still say they “feel safe” under his leadership?
The answer is neither mysterious nor magical. It lies in a combination of history, strategy, statecraft, and disciplined politics—lessons the opposition must soberly consider if it hopes to be competitive by 2031.
The Politics of Safety and Memory
For many Ugandans, particularly those over 35, politics is not an abstract contest of slogans; it is shaped by lived experience. The National Resistance Movement (NRM) came to power promising to end cycles of chaos, sectarianism, and state collapse. Over time, it embedded a powerful narrative: stability is the foundation of all progress.
Security—often taken for granted by critics—remains the currency with which the Museveni administration connects to ordinary Ugandans. From defeating insurgencies to maintaining regional peace and border security, the NRM has projected an image of a government firmly in control. In a region where instability is never far away, this resonates deeply.
Many Ugandans may debate policy, but most fear disorder more than delayed reform. This psychological contract—security first, everything else debated later—has been a cornerstone of Museveni’s electoral resilience.
Experience as Political Capital
Museveni’s longevity has paradoxically become one of his strongest assets. In an era of uncertainty, voters often prefer the “known hand” to the unknown experiment. Museveni campaigns not merely as a candidate but as an institution—someone who understands the state, the region, and the international system.
His messaging has remained consistent: ideology over populism, gradual reform over reckless disruption, and nationalism over protest politics. Critics may call this stagnation, but supporters see prudence.
The NRM has also mastered structural politics—maintaining party cohesion, leveraging grassroots networks, and aligning state programs with political mobilization. From parish-level structures to national development initiatives, the ruling party maintains visibility where opposition politics is often episodic.
There is no magical charm—only disciplined political strategy. Museveni listens, adapts, and absorbs opponents’ language when useful. He communicates differently to soldiers, youth, cadres, and international partners, but rarely abandons the political centre.
Governance itself becomes a campaign: roads, electricity, schools, peacekeeping prestige, and regional diplomacy are woven into a narrative of indispensability. By contrast, the opposition often campaigns against Museveni rather than for Uganda—a subtle but decisive difference.
If the opposition hopes to challenge the NRM effectively, it must first unlearn comforting myths:
- Move Beyond Protest Politics – Mobilization without a credible governing alternative does not translate into national confidence. Ugandans seek reassurance, not perpetual agitation.
- Build Institutions, Not Personalities – Museveni leads a system; the opposition often rallies around individuals. Systems outlast charisma.
- Develop a Security Narrative – Any credible challenger must convincingly answer the voter question: “Will I be safe under you?” Silence on security is political suicide.
- Engage the Countryside Seriously – Elections in Uganda are not won on social media alone. They are won in villages, cooperatives, savings groups, and faith communities.
- Respect History While Arguing for Change – Dismissing the liberation legacy alienates voters who still see it as the foundation of modern Uganda.
Lessons from This Election
This election offers a sobering lesson: power is retained not by noise but by narrative. Museveni and the NRM continue to tell a story that many Ugandans—rightly or wrongly—find credible: that a country is best served by experienced stewardship in an unpredictable world.
Democracy is strengthened not by denying this reality but by understanding it. For now, President Museveni remains not merely a man in power but a political idea—one rooted in stability, continuity, and state authority.
Until the opposition presents a more compelling national vision, the NRM’s hold on Uganda’s political imagination is likely to endure.
Uganda’s future will be determined not by who shouts loudest, but by who convinces the country that tomorrow will be safer than today.
Mr Tonny Tumukunde in an Advocate of the High Court of Uganda
